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NFL – Week Five: Best Spread Bets

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4 weeks ago

5th September 2024

Joe Day

Week Five – NFL Spread Bets

Last week we went 2-1 on our picks for the best spread bets with the Bronco’s and Colts performing to expectations. The -13 points for the Rams at home to the Giants was just too many points to swallow and the Rams offence struggled more than expected against the Giants defence. However, moving onto Week 5, these are my favourite spread bets picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 @ Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football, 08/10/2020

The Tampa bay Buccaneers did struggle last week against rookie Quarterback Justin Herbert as he threw for three TD’s which is as many passing touchdowns the Bucs had allowed in the previous three games. But Tom Brady threw five touchdowns to five different receivers to power the Bucs to 3-1. Their offence is top ten in total offences as they average 30 points a game. By contrast the Bears are averaging 21.3 points per game on offence.

The Bears come into this short week off the back of an abysmal offensive showing against the league’s best defence in the Colts, where Foles only threw only one touchdown and that was in garbage time! I would not worry about the Buc’s pass defence against this Bears team as last weeks poor defensive showing can be put down to the explosiveness of Herbert. But, Foles just simply does not possess that. The Bears have only beat teams with losing records so far this season and the Colts defence highlighted the reality of this Bears team.

Even without star wide receivers, Godwin and Evans who missed practice this week, Tom Brady and the Bucs receiving core will make easy work of the 3-1 Bears. The short week plays into the experience of Brady and the Tampa defence returns to its early season form against a more limited quarterback in Nick Foles. The Bears’ demise continues into this game with the Bucs winning by more than a touchdown.

Stack 'em up.

?: #TBvsCHI 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday on FOX pic.twitter.com/lIR04ij38R

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) October 5, 2020

Arizona Cardinals -7 @ New York Jets, 11/10/2020

The Arizona Cardinals have lost back-to-back games against the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers, two teams they were favourites to beat. However, the Jets are the perfect team for any team to play that needs to return to winning ways and Cardinals Quarterback, Kyler Murray, will carve up this atrocious Jets defence. The Cardinals schedule after the Jets includes; at the cowboys, at home to Seahawks, at home to Dolphins and at home to the Bills. Therefore, with wins looking doubtful in the near future, Arizona must get the job done to remain significant in the NFC West.

By contrast, the New York Jets are waiting for the firing of Adam Gase which everyone with an interest in the NFL can see is on the cards and the only narrative for their season is do they abandon Sam Darnold to draft Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft.

If there is one stat to convince you to take this spread, it should be that the Jets are 0-4 against the spread this season. Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals get back to winning ways against the NFL’s whipping boys as they drive for a playoff place in the most competitive division in football.

An Empire State of Mind ? pic.twitter.com/peK5NTjZGF

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) October 8, 2020

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 @ Houston Texans, 11/10/2020

The Jaguars have only beat the Texans twice since the 2013 season and I know that is a weird statistic to start with as I have the Jaguars winning this spread, but hear me out. The Houston Texans are not the team that they were for the last 7 years, as in the off season they traded off star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins with no one really taking his place as Deshaun Watson’s number one receiver. After their 0-4 start to the season, the Texans hierarchy have fired their head coach in Bill O’Brien with his replacement not being announced in time for this game. They’re bottom six in both team offence and team defence with the Jaguars being ever so slightly better and they have also managed to win a game this season.

The jags quarterback, Gardner Minshew has shown that any week he can come alive and carve up any defence as he did in week one against the Colts as he threw three touchdowns and there is every possibility that he does that this Sunday. Now, I think the Texans will win this one because they have Deshaun Watson, but it will be a close game as the Texans are 0-4 for a reason, even if they have played the league’s best teams.

"We expect him to get better. He's a young player. He has great energy, great passion for the game."

Confidence is high in the locker room and in @GardnerMinshew5

— #DUUUVAL (@Jaguars) October 7, 2020

Pick of the Week, Indianapolis Colts -1.5 @ Cleveland Browns, Sunday Night Football 07/10/2020

Now this is one extra game pick than last week, but this game is too interesting to not comment upon. The Cleveland Browns surprised a lot of teams last week as they burnt the Dallas Cowboys defence to go 41-14 before the Cowboys began an attempt to fightback in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the Browns are 3-1 to start the season for the first time since 2003. But it would be a very Browns move to completely blow out this tough game at home to completely shatter all optimism surrounding the team.

Comparing the two teams on defence we have the league’s best defence in the Colts and the league’s 28^th worst defence with the Browns. To dive deeper, the Browns strength this season has been in their rush attack through their two-punch system with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Unfortunately, Nick Chubb is out for around six weeks as he has been placed on injury reserve. But if last week is anything to go by, then the Browns have an abundance of talent at running back with D’Ernest Johnson who had a 95-yard day against the Cowboys, who it should be noted have the league’s worst defence.

The Colts rushing defence is the third best in the league and they will take way Cleveland’s best attacking option. This will force Baker Mayfield to throw the ball for the majority of the game and when this happens, the Browns do not win big games. However, the Colts offence is not explosive enough to run away with this game as their redzone offence is 28^th in the league as they score touchdowns 46.67% of the time, they are in the redzone whereas Cleveland are third with 80%.

Therefore, this game is setup for a close game with several touchdowns for each team, but I have the Colts to win due to their superior defence which will force Mayfield to throw more than Kevin Stefanski would ideally like him to.

Setting the pace. pic.twitter.com/FprYP4pnfg

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 6, 2020

We hope you enjoyed this article ‘NFL – Week Five: Best Spread Bets’ and that you come back next week for the NFL Week Six picks against the spread. Let us know how you get on!

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