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NFL – Week Eight: Best Spread Bets

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1 month ago

19th November 2024

Joe Day

NFL – Week Eight: Best Spread Bets

Last week I did like our bets, but not to make excuses, there was some serious bad luck. The Atlanta Falcons would’ve won but Todd Gurley accidently scored a touchdown which cost them the game. The Seahawks blew a lead and the inconsistent Kyler Murray showed up! The Cleveland Browns in typical Cleveland Brown style failed to convert the extra point. which meant that our -3 win was neither here nor there… Onto week eight for the best spread bets.

LA Rams -4 @ Miami Dolphins – 01/11/20

The LA Rams will be making the 2732-mile trip to Miami, but they do so after beating the NFC 1st seed Chicago Bears. They blew them out 24-10 and managed two interceptions with four sacks against Nick Foles.

Miami on the other hand have named rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as their starter in this match. This does add some uncertainty to the pick, as he could pop as Sean McVay has no NFL tape on the Miami quarterback.

The Rams do have an Aaron Donald to disrupt any O-Line and he will surely welcome the rookie to the NFL. A problem that will keep Dolphins head coach Brian Flores up at night.

The Miami dolphins are not loaded with weapons which are needed to help any rookie QB. Their leading receiver, DeVante Parker, is 34^th in receiving yards. Their leading rusher, Myles Gaskin, is also 24^thin rushing yards. Tua will not find his starting game as easy as his Oklahoma days with the Rams star filled defense playing in this game.

The Dolphin defense has been more effective however as they rank top ten in receiving yards allowed and receiving touchdowns allowed. Their rush defense is middle of the pack though, but the Rams rush more than anyone in the league. An attack that has benefitted them with scoring the third most rushing touchdowns in the league.

I like the Rams offence to take hold of this game and to show up the new Tua era in Miami.

Coach Flores has announced that @Tua will be the starting quarterback. #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/kxVqpwZPLY

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 21, 2020

Green Bay Packers -7 @ home against Minnesota Vikings – 01/11/20

This is the first time I am taking the Packers in what is their second game against their NFC North rivals. These two faced in Game week one, with the Packers winning 43-34 at Minnesota. Let’s just say the Vikings have not improved much since then…

Green Bay is currently atop of the NFC North with the Vikings bottom. Since 2008, the Packers are 8-3-2 against the Vikings when playing them at Lambeau. To convince you further that the Packers will win, the Vikings have a point differential in the season of -37 and the Packers have +38. Aaron Rodgers’ 17 passing touchdowns has strongly attributed to this.

Mike Zimmer’s defense is bottom ten in passing yards and touchdowns allowed. A matchup that will allow Davante Adams to add to his four touchdowns already this season (He got half of them against the Vikings FYI).

We’ve established the Packers offence will have a field day but what about Kirk and Co? Well he has thrown the second most touchdowns this season and only the 16^th most touchdowns. Less than Gardner Minshew and only two more than Dak Prescott who he has two extra games on.

The Vikings scored four TD’s in game week one. All but one of these came in garbage time in the fourth quarter. I expect a replay this time around. Rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson has luckily found his feet. Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander however will look to take care of him as he one of PFF’s top five cornerbacks.

Vikings running back Dalvin Cook could cause the Packers rush defense some trouble. If the Packers go up quick and go up by a lot, the Vikings will abandon the rush attack. Then their troublesome air attack takes the field and Kirk struggles. Whilst all that time, the Packers offence runs away with the game. A repeat of game week one.

Aaron Rodgers' 17 touchdown passes through the first six games matches a career best (2011).

Packers Daily ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/sp0j9xDQGc

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 28, 2020

LA Chargers -3 @ Denver Bronco’s – 01/11/20

This is an AFC West showdown with both teams currently 2-4. The Bronco’s lost their last game where they were put in their place, by current super bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, after their shock win over the Patriots the week before. The Chargers come into this game as favourites, partially due to their decisive win over the Jaguars 39-29.

The Chargers are 2-4 but they have had overtime losses to the Chiefs and Saints. If they had won those games, they would be looking dangerous at 4-2 with people saying that no one wants to play them. But they aren’t.

The reality is that they have the 26^th best offence and the 14^th best defense according to Pro Football Reference, nothing too frightening for this weeks’ Halloween fixture.

These two are fairly even, sticking with Pro Football Reference, the Bronco’s have the 13^th best defense. However they have the 30^th best offence… mainly due to quarterback Drew Lock being absent for a few games. But the Chargers have the better quarterback and that always counts for something!

We must mention rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for four touchdowns against the Saints and three against the Jags. As we spoke earlier about the Dolphins rookie quarterback not having support, Herbert’s early form is partially down to the support around him.

The Chargers have more weapons than the Broncos with wide receivers Keenen Allen and Mike Williams, tight end, Hunter Henry and running back Austin Ekeler. Compared to the Broncos who are without; Von Miller, running back Phillip Lindsay and their tight end Noah Fant only being in limited practice.

I like the Chargers offence to get the job done against the Broncos defense, who have given up 25+ points in four of their six games. The Chargers won last week against the Spread with -7 at the Jaguars and I like them to pick up some form in the season, with back to back wins to climb up the AFC West ladder.